Kurt's Blog

January 16, 2017

Motivation

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kurt Häusler @ 1:45 pm

So everyone knows that for knowledge work, money and other extrinsic motivators don’t work right? And people are instead motivated by intrinsic motivators like autonomy, mastery and purpose.

Well that is what a lot of you think but it is actually missing much of the story. When people like Dan Pink talk about it, they actually mention something intuitive at the beginning that listeners forget because the focus is on the interesting non-intuitive bit. Before the intrinsic factors actually have a motivational effect people have to be paid enough to “keep the issue of money off the table”. No one tries to hide this, but I don’t know if people focus on it enough. I guess most motivational theorists and speakers must come from countries like the USA where a significant number of knowledge workers are earning over this thresh-hold. I am not sure if it is so relevant elsewhere. I decided to look at average salaries for different types of knowledge worker to see if I could notice any patterns.

Lets have a look at some numbers from glassdoor.com. I was always redirected to the German version based on my location and couldn’t switch to the English version without signing up and filling in all details. I also converted to Euro based on current rates. These are the average salaries for each job in each country:

Job

Germany

USA

Switzerland

Software Developer €49,845 €80,245 €101,386
Scrum Master €30-70k €55-90k €112-136k
Project Manager €60,540 €86,308 €111,945

A couple of other things to keep in mind:

  • Taxes in Germany are higher than they are in the USA and Switzerland.
  • I guess for Scrum Master in each country they did not have enough entries to provide a straight up average, but they did provide a sample of entries. Here I tried to represent the range without the outliers.
  • Costs may not be comparable between countries. I know Switzerland has higher living costs, but I don’t think overall they are twice as much. I think Germany and the USA might be more comparable.

Looking at these numbers I would make the bold claim that in Germany we don’t need to worry about intrinsic motivation too much. Only the very top end are going to be earning over the thresh-hold where intrinsic motivation plays much of a role at all. I would say in Germany, we need to concentrate on paying people more. In Switzerland it would seem to be the other way around. Here we can really see the power of intrinsic motivation. In the USA it could go either way, I would say most are indeed earning over the thresh-hold, but many not.

Now, I know the software development managers in Germany are saying “Impossible. We cannot pay our guys any more. The customer would not accept our offers. We would have to let people go”. Sure, I am very familiar with the software development market in Germany and where the money goes. I would say in most cases we have to live with developers who are demotivated and are constantly looking for a better paying job. There are a couple of things we should also be looking at in most cases:

  • Doing the wrong projects and optimizing for employee utilization. Knowledge work based projects should offer significant rather than scant returns. German managers will go to great lengths to make a sale and keep their employees busy for the tiniest of margins. They have a real phobia about saying no to low value endeavors especially when employees are sitting there without a project. What happens is they make that sale, because doing something is better than doing nothing, and when a high value opportunity comes along, everyone is too busy to take it up.
  • We also have a phobia about killing low value projects early. For some reason we don’t like quitting. We want to slog on through and get it done regardless. Most things are fine to start but they aren’t meant to succeed. The focus should be on proving early that something is a loser, and killing it. Freeing up people for better things.
  • We spend too much on non-value-adding management and organisational effort. Typically when introducing lean or agile methods we add new roles in addition to existing power structures. This is a big cause of waste in organizations. By replacing rather than supplementing management roles with agile roles we can free up a lot of money to reallocate to value-adding knowledge workers resulting in increased motivation and better financial results.

Anyway, to summarise, the almost blind belief in intrinsic motivation might be appropriate for some countries, but in many countries we have to listen a bit more closely to the bit the theorists and speakers don’t spend so much time on: You have to pay enough to keep the issue of money off the table. In Germany, we do not do that, so intrinsic motivation is of limited utility.

January 12, 2017

Do I support local businesses?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kurt Häusler @ 12:40 pm

It seems like one of the trendy ideas is to support local businesses. I buy a lot of stuff from Amazon and have been mildly criticized for doing so. At the time I responded defensively but the reality is of course more nuanced. At a philosophical level I find “preferring to shop locally” to be very similar to nationalism or even racism. The idea that someone is more deserving of my business merely because they are from the same area, speak the same language, and look similar doesn’t sit right with me. In fact if I look at the world today I would claim the opposite. If I look at comparative standards of living across the world I would think the relatively poorer shop owner or service provider in South America, Africa, Eastern Europe or Southern Asia deserves my business more than the rich German over the road.

And of course as someone who actually lives in a country other than that in which he was born I am the foreigner. I wouldn’t like to think someone refuses to do business with me in favor of a “true local”. I also wouldn’t like to think people in other countries, especially in fellow EU countries, don’t want to do business with me simply because of where I am located.

So much for the theory. In a practical sense, I don’t like going to shops. I don’t like the over the top attempts to trick me into spending money with color choices, background music and even smells. I feel bombarded and almost overwhelmed with the pressure to consume. I dislike that I can never find the thing I want and am forced to make compromises and pay 3x the price for the privilege.

Having said that, I buy the following things locally:

  • Groceries
  • Shirt cleaning services
  • Fast food
  • Experiences rather than products, e.g. attending events
  • Very small cheap things that I need urgently
  • Things that might get broken easily in the post

Everything else I order online from wherever it is cheapest. This includes both products and services. I think in doing so I am performing a social service.

Where businesses choose to do their work is exactly the same. I always cringe when nationalists complain that a new factory is set up in another, usually disadvantaged country. It is good to support workers in poorer countries isn’t it? Or when racists complain about e.g. Indian workers “replacing” white workers in North America or Eastern Europeans “replacing” Western Europeans. It is how equilibriums work. Rich countries in general have a high demand and low supply of labor, whereas poorer countries have the opposite. That is why it is possible to save money by investing in people from these countries which makes prices lower for end-consumers.

To be more concrete, I have a lot in common with the average Slashdot reader, but one area in which I differ completely is in their anti-competitive stance against the foreign programmer. Especially the H1B Indian programmer. It always makes me cringe to see very well paid people up in arms because people from a foreign country are just trying to lift themselves out of a subsistence economy into a modern knowledge based economy, and help fill the capacity shortage we have in IT.

The other example that comes to mind are those in the UK, who never voted Brexit, but were always harping on about “buying UK”. They are complaining now, but why were they never chanting “buy EU”?

Everyone (well not me) claims to be a trendy leftist, socialist these days. I thought part of that was “international worker solidarity” or something, but as soon as it comes to foreign workers they ignore that completely and revert to a nationalist, protectionist stance: “them foreigners are stealin mah jerb!”

Of course I am biased, as someone who had the opportunity to live and work in another country it makes sense. What I really don’t understand is how people in a similar position to me can have such nationalist positions and criticize the very labor mobility that enabled them to live overseas in the first place.

I am proud to be a globalist rather than a nationalist.

November 16, 2016

Learning the Mainframe

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kurt Häusler @ 4:49 am

In my job as IT consultant for the banking industry I sometimes have to do some work on an IBM Mainframe, which means the z/OS operating system, formerly known as OS/360, MVS, and OS/390. Yes there are other companies selling mainframes but most of them are “IBM compatible” and there are other mainframe operating systems including Linux but z/OS is the main one.

image

But how are you supposed to learn how it works? Most people don’t have access to one at work, and even if you do you probably shouldn’t use a client’s expensive mainframe time to play around.

The way I learned was to first pick up some theory from this excellent book, freely available in a variety of formats: Introduction to the New Mainframe: z/OS Basics

image

Just from skimming through the interesting chapters you can turn up to work and not be completely lost when performing your mainframe tasks.

So with a book, and limited access to a real machine you can get started. But what if you don’t have access to a mainframe? Can you download and install z/OS on a VM? Sort of. There is an emulator available called Hercules. But it isn’t that easy to get going. You still have to hunt down the operating system on your own in most cases, and install it yourself which is a bit much for a beginner. The latest freely available operating system version is I believe a version of MVS from the 70s. Don’t worry it is not actually that different to the latest version. The best way to run it at home as a beginner with minimum hassle is to find The MVS Turnkey System. I did this and was able to play around a bit with the help of the previously mentioned book but it is not the best way.

image

IBM has a contest for students called Master the Mainframe. They give you access to an internal z13 and provide you a tutorial. Students get their work marked and can maybe win a prize or something. If you are not a student however you can still take part, but your work will not get marked and there will not be any prizes.

If you register here anyone can get an account on the mainframe and complete the tutorial style challenges. It takes a couple of days though. When registered you can find the tutorial challenges here: http://mtm2016.mybluemix.net/index.html

Click on Connectivity Guide to get started on the first steps.

image

I was able to get about halfway through Part Two in one weekend, to give you an idea of how much work is involved. It does get more challenging though so I expect Part Three to take a bit longer.

Once you do it, you can rightfully claim z/OS experience on your C.V. which might increase your worth if you are already involved in IT, consulting or banking. There is a shortage of talent as the older guys retire so there should be good opportunities for people with basic skills to move in and replace them. Even if you don’t want to specialize in the mainframe you will be surprised how often basic skills are required on banking projects even in management roles.

Here are some additional points related to the mainframe:

  • Some people say you can’t do Agile on the mainframe. This is completely false. There are no technical issues to doing Agile on the mainframe. You can unit test COBOL. You can refactor it. You can run automated tests. You can do DevOps and deploy several times per day. The barriers to Agile are usually cultural and bureaucratic rather than technical.
  • Mainframe teams don’t need Agile for the same reasons. Getting new products on the market quickly is less of a priority. However Agile is critical to manage other risks: Old legacy code with technical debt and knowledge gaps as people leave without training replacements properly.
  • The mainframe guys were using NoSQL not just before NoSQL was invented but before SQL was invented. In fact trendy modern ideas like event sourcing look a lot like how mainframes have been storing transactions in systems of record in “NoSQL” DBs like IMS since the 70s.
  • The mainframe is and always will be great for batch operations and transaction processing and anything requiring very high levels of reliability. IBM seem to be moving away from z/OS and towards Linux for the new economy, supporting mobile applications and hosting web services etc. They also have a vision of replacing the scaled-out data center approach of lots of cheap x86 servers running VMs, with single mainframes running thousands of Linux VMs. I don’t know about this. I think you end up paying for levels of reliability that are not required. For me the future of the mainframe will always be a niche oriented around z/OS and not an ideal way to host e.g. Java web services on Linux VMs.
  • After you finish reading the previously mentioned book. There are whole series of books covering mainframe topics in depth: ABCs of IBM z/OS System Programming. Here is a link to Volume 1.

December 27, 2015

My Weight Loss Tips

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kurt Häusler @ 10:27 am

For a long time I was slightly overweight, but I think I have it under control right now. My problem is staying at the right weight range is only worth a moderate amount of effort for me, so exercise doesn’t work, and neither does eating right if it requires putting extra effort (and expense) into shopping, cooking and cleaning up. Trying to exercise going to much effort did not result in weight loss, and simply created a new problem. The exercise and eating right made me enjoy life a lot less than simply being slightly overweight. Anyway, the following eating pattern worked for me. Not just in getting my weight back on target, but also improving my mood and energy levels throughout the day.

Breakfast

Staying at a hotel made this easy: A large low-carb breakfast of bacon, eggs, tomatoes, mushrooms, yogurt and fruit salad, as well as a liter or so of multi-vitamin juice. I know there is a lot of sugar in the juice, but I think that is ok if I don’t grab any other carb-heavy crap. I eat until I am full. It gives me a great start to the day. I usually wait until I get to the office before having coffee or green tea.

Lunch

The work cantina made this easy too. Sometimes going to other restaurants made it hard though. Here I mix things up, and generally let my body tell me what I should eat which is simply what I feel like. Sometimes fish, sometimes some other meat dish, perhaps with vegetables and sometimes salad. Because I had such a heavy breakfast I don’t have a huge appetite at lunchtime, so it is easy to stick to the meat and vegetables and avoid carbs. Here I sometimes take the standard side of carbs if I feel like it but usually only eat a third to a half of it. Most of the time I take no carb-heavy side dish. If I take a salad I usually add tuna, and even though the dressings are unhealthy, I add them to make it nice and don’t stress about it too much. At restaurants it can be difficult, but I try to follow this pattern as much as possible.

Dinner

No dinners. Or very seldom I might have something small for social reasons. This helped me sleep much better too.

Other tips

  • No deserts.
  • No cooking at home. If cooking is your hobby then cooking at home could be a great option. For me it takes too much mental energy to research healthy recipes, find ingredients, make sure I have the right equipment, cook it with my minimal cooking skills, and clean up afterwards. It is also expensive and wasteful to buy ingredients for one dish, and then have to throw out 90% of it when it expires anyway. The kids hate home cooked food anyway and refuse to eat it. So cooking at home is a big no-no for me. I think I could only make it work if it became one of my major hobbies, but I am not interested in this at this stage.
  • No snacking.

December 8, 2015

Sensitive Data Privacy Protection in the German Medical Industry

Filed under: Stories — Tags: , , — Kurt Häusler @ 1:10 pm

 

A few years ago I was involved in developing an image database for the medical industry. It was mostly used by skin doctors. I remember having to test and analyze errors in the software by debugging and clicking through real databases sent in by our customers. I was exposed to both images, and highly sensitive medical information as well as identifying information such as names and addresses of patients. Some of these images included naked full body images (used for tracking new moles over time) of both adults and children as well as close-ups including genitalia, usually with medical ailments such as sexually transmitted diseases. Once again, not just of adults. I remember discussing whether there was some way to improve the software so that we could protect people’s privacy (I did not know much about the privacy laws at the time, but was certain that doctors should have insisted on NOT sending us such databases) but this was not prioritized at the time. Some of these databases came from the town I lived in, and the summary list contained surnames I recognized so I decided not to analyze this database. The experience made me concerned about my own privacy in connection with the medical industry. Thankfully I don’t have any interesting items in my medical history, but it is disturbing to know that if I did, the industry would not take my rights or the law as seriously as they should. This was one of, but not the major, reason why I decided to leave this company.

The last time I went to my current doctor for a regular checkup I sat in and waited for him.The screen on his desktop was only slightly angled towards his side, so I was once again confronted with sensitive information that I knew was legally protected.

Today I came back from getting a vaccination. I was asked to sit in the lab for about 5 minutes and wait. Once again was the same screen I saw at my previous visit. The top panel contained the name, address and medical insurance information of a patient, and the bottom panel contained the current relevant medical details about the patient including existing conditions, medications, reasons for visits, and personal observations. Once again, I felt bad for the patient, but also bad that someone else might get to see my (fortunately boring) medical history.

The EUs Data Protection Directive allows businesses to collect this information, but obliges them to prevent such data from being exposed to unauthorized third parties without consent.

I mentioned this to both employees, and got disturbingly dismissive answers such as “yeah unfortunately we just do not have the room”, to my comment “you know this is illegal right”. I mentioned to the other employee that it would probably be ok to lock the screen or switch it off every time you leave the room, but she didn’t know if that was possible and blamed it on patients that make an appointment but never turn up.

I am not a lawyer but as far as I know medical data is especially protected. I don’t know if this means jail time for the doctors, nurses and receptionists involved, or just a financial slap on the hand, but I would be interested in knowing.

This is not a name and shame post, as the problem is certainly widespread, but I think the medical industry should definitely consider this a shame post. From what I know in the financial services industry, they take such matters much more seriously. This is probably because banks etc have a very long relationship with the IT industry, who seem to be taking the lead in helping customers implement privacy control, but the medical industry seems to have always felt less comfortable with IT in general and possibly hasn’t been exposed to such ideas as much.

Part of me however thinks I probably should report this. I don’t know. If this is a jailable offence it is probably just as bad to ignore it as any murder or rape. If it is merely a fineable offence, then I would rather stay out of any direct involvement.

The lesson for me is probably just be very careful about how willing I should be to let my doctor be involved any sensitive medical issues, without specific provable assurances that my privacy will be protected. If that makes it sound like I don’t trust them, then that is because I unfortunately cannot. I don’t think you should either, not at the moment at least.

March 23, 2014

Frankfurter Entwicklertag 2014

Filed under: conferences — Tags: , , , — Kurt Häusler @ 10:05 am

On the 19th of February I attended the Frankfurter Entwicklertag (Frankfurt Developer Day). It is not the sort of event I have been recently attending as my interests are slowly moving away from software development, and more towards management of the wider value stream. I entered a draw at the christmas meeting of the Agile Rhein-Main user group and was lucky enough to win a free ticket thanks to Andrena Objects.

FrankfurterEntwicklertag

It was a very well organised and promoted event. I liked the strategy of engaging with the community and giving away free tickets. They managed to sell all the tickets I believe. 

I deliberately tried to stay away from “agile” related topics, as I think I have been well exposed to those sorts of things and I wanted to leave my (current) comfort zone and take the opportunity to hear some technical topics that I have been focussing on less lately (which is my old comfort zone). My favourite talk was the one about Event Sourcing, as actually practiced by Vaamo Finanz. This was great as event sourcing together with CQRS was all the hype in the DDD community around 2009/2010. I could see the potential in the idea, and played around with it myself, but unfortunately didn’t get to experience it for real in my work. I remember talking about it, and even leading open space sessions on the topic at various conferences, where we focussed a lot on the theory but people were hungering for actual practical experience reports. Then it seems like either the topic died down a bit, or perhaps my interest drifted away a bit. Then all of a sudden 4 years later I see an actual experience report, and all the potential issues we were discussing in theory back then were reported as actual findings, and it was great to hear about how Vaamo actually dealt with the issues. It felt weird that something should at the same time be leading edge, yet still feel like a nostalgic trip down memory lane. The talk was superb. Full of interesting technical content, and very well presented. It was engaging, relatable, and entertaining.

Overall, I don’t think I would have paid the asking price for the ticket. I would have preferred to see it as a community event with more costs covered by sponsorship with perhaps a maximum ticket price around the €30 mark. Specifically because it was so wide and general. I think it is a good conference to send developers to to get up to speed on a fairly random selection of interesting topics, and they can deep dive into anything potentially interesting at a more specialist conference after. If I was a developer, i would have probably already had an idea about what specific technologies would be relevant to solving my specific problems and I would have attended a more specialised conference where I can go into more detail on one thing, rather than get a fairly superficial overview of a bunch of random topics, many of which are not likely to be relevant for me at any given time.

I didn’t see a huge connection with the stated list of focus areas: Agility, Quality and Innovation, but that doesn’t matter too much I guess.

Another concern was the level of female participation. There were female attendees, but worryingly few. Only one female was involved as a presenter, and there were no women in the program committee. This may not yet be as much of a concern in the German speaking countries as much as it is in the English speaking ones (where conferences have had to be canceled after a backlash against all-male program committees for example!), but I think it is something even in Germany we need to be much more concerned about.

A big thanks to Andrena for organising, and of course for my free ticket!

February 10, 2014

#NoEstimates Interview with Fabian Schiller

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — Kurt Häusler @ 11:30 am

#NoEstimates – an Interview


I met up with Fabian Schiller (Twitter, Blog) recently at the Agile Rhein-Main User Group in Wiesbaden, we started having a brief chat about #NoEstimates, and decided to continue our discussion via email so it could be blogged later. All numbers are fake yet realistic. Fabian also blogged the interview on his blog.


Fabian:  “Hi Kurt, you tell me that it is a good thing to stop estimating? I’m sorry, but I cannot imagine how that could work out. How will I be able to calculate the costs for an upcoming project? As a business person, I must – at least – have a rough estimate, how expensive my project will be to know if it will pay off. How can you do this without estimation?”


Kurt: “Yes I think in general it is a good thing to stop estimating, there will always be situations where it makes sense, and of course it also depends on what we mean by estimating. For calculating costs estimation is especially bad. In fact the agile community had never even discussed estimation for this purpose. Estimation was generally safe as a tool for teams to use in planning how much work to take on each iteration and for providing rough forecasts about which features might be available in which release. For calculating costs there are a variety of approaches. Asking a team to sit down and guess how many developer hours each feature will require to type in and adding this up and multiplying these hours by various hourly rates is the poorest approach I have seen whether we are preparing an estimate for a T&M project or determining an actual price for a fixed price project.


My first comment would be that pricing an entire project at once is un-agile. It is at best hybrid, but that might be ok. Exactly how I would price the project depends on a lot of factors. How well does the customer understand about what he wants? Has the team done something similar before? Does the customer have a budget? How flexible is the customer and is he open to working in new ways or does he have certain constraints?


One simple approach (that might work in some cases but not others) would be to identify the most important feature than can be developed in one sprint. We know our team costs for a sprint so we can base the price for this “Version 0.1” or “Minimal Viable Product” on our costs. Then the customers question might be “how do I know in advance how many sprints I will need?” Then it gets interesting. I would perhaps then ask him something like “what are the minimal features we need to go live and start earning money?”. Perhaps something like the Incremental Funding Method could be an option.”


Fabian: “OK. That explains a lot. I see many valuable approaches in what you say. The idea of delivering MVPs and approaching a project in small steps is nice. But as a customer I do not want to risk building one increment after another to determine that my money will not suffice to get the minimal marketable product ready when the money is already spent. So, I essentially want to know if there is a realistic chance to get my product built within my budget. How might that work with an MVP approach? Or am I and my project just not eligible for working agile? Is that what you are saying?”


Kurt: “The assumption I made, was that there was at least enough money available for a minimal viable product (One thing we like to offer customer’s is a special price for an MVP that can be completed in 1 sprint), and some extra available for further work in case it is not ready to go live (if the software development is only part of the product for example, we probably can’t go live until the rest of the product is ready anyway). It sounds like you already have a fairly detailed understanding about exactly what it is you want as well as a budget. In other words, fixed scope, with a fixed upper bound on budget. This is probably the easiest case. Without needing to get too detailed, we can compare our delivery rate of features with our pricing and see whether the budget easily covers it or not. We can probably do this with an MVP approach but it sounds like the difficult part is already done. You already know exactly what you want. (MVPs are usually used when the customer doesn’t know exactly what he wants, and wants to first test the market with an MVP and use the feedback to drive the vision of the product) In this case we can simply build it, one feature after another, and provide regular feedback about how much of the budget we will be using. This is a fairly typical approach, and definitely qualifies as agile software development. Radical people like me would consider it a hybrid situation, as the financial decisions and requirements gathering has already taken place for the whole project, and only the development itself will be carried out iteratively. So the whole “project” doesn’t sound agile, but the software development phase can certainly be carried out according to agile software development.”


Fabian: “OK, I think I got that. You would just take all my stories, divide them by your average

sprint capacity and then – since you have a fixed size team – know how the costs would be. Correct?

But how do you know, that the stories, I will deliver are about the same size as the stories, you worked on in the past? If you simply take the number of stories, size should matter. Doesn’t it?”


Kurt: “That is roughly right, yes. However I won’t pretend to be able to “know the costs”. The first step is to see if we are anywhere in the same ballpark. I would take your stories, and split them, which is a fairly mechanical process looking for certain keywords, steps in a workflow, or variations etc, and count those. The numbers I base my costs on are actually based on a larger group of 20 people that is usually split into 2-4 teams and works on 2-4 different things at once. So not quite sprint capacity, but close. I know over the last 12 months this group has cost roughly 130,000 Euro per month on average, and has delivered over the last 12 months roughly 180 items per month. So that means my costs are roughly 730 per item. We only need a small margin say 5% as everything else, like rent, hardware, training, maternity leave etc is already included in the 130,000 costs. That brings it up to about 760, which I would round up to 800 to provide a nice round number and cover the risk on my size if I have to commit to a price up front, say if you will only accept a fixed price offer. Oh and you don’t really need a fixed size team, you just need to know how much the typical team changes over a year affect costs. It is definitly better to have a fairly stable team though.


So we can take that 800 and multiply it by the number of stories, you have and compare it to your budget. I would recommend proceeding only if the price is significantly lower than the budget. If it is more, or comes close then the project might not be such a business success. Even if the expected price is slightly lower than the budget, I would still suggest looking for a better project, knowledge work should result in significant rather than scant returns.”


I fully expect that in any backlog the stories will vary in size. This size is not as important as many people think, once you consider the whole value stream, rather just just the development itself. I expect that the distribution of the true lead times of items I attempt in the next 12 months, and my throughput will be similar to the distribution of sizes of items I delivered and my throughput over the last 12 months. Plus every new project gives me new statistics that I can use to base the next months prices on (and one month of year old statistics drops out of the moving average). If your project turns out to result in longer lead times or a drop in throughput (whether that has anything to do with item size or some other factor), then my cost per item will go up slightly, and I will raise the prices for the next project. Possibly however another customer’s project has factors (maybe item size, maybe something else) that result in shorter lead times and an increase in throughput and they will cancel each other out.”


Fabian: “OK, I see, there is a lot more thoughts in #NoEstimates than just denying to estimate 😉

Your explanations sound reasonable. But they open up two further questions for me:


1.) If your first step is to break down stories at the beginning of a project to relatively small ones – will you not be very detailed before starting to implement? This sounds kind of like a classical project specification for me…


2.) Using your mechanics, you would implicitly reward customers, that formulate larger and larger stories over time which sounds not good for neither your understanding of the project nor the next customer, who will have to pay that bill? After all, the distribution of story sizes is not a random variable, but highly determined by your customer!”


Kurt: “With regards to question 1, my preferred approach is in fact NOT to break down all stories in a project to relatively small ones. My preferred approach is to simply pick the single most important feature, break that down if necessary, deliver it, and repeat. Even if we might know what the next most valuable features are I would ignore them for now and concentrate on the single most valuable feature. This is not too radical for agile software development or lean startup. This particular case is a bit different for these reasons: you already know exactly what you want, and have already completed the initial phases of the project in a waterfall manner, at least the requirements gathering seems to be complete. The other reason why we do this initial quick splitting is because you wanted a forecast upfront about how the expected costs of the whole project might compare with your budget. This is definitely a hybrid project but that is ok, most are.


You are right that a customer who is paying per feature might try and make them bigger to get more for his money, that is why we always split before committing together to beginning development of an item. But it could still be the case, that even after splitting one customer’s project’s items turn out to have shorter lead times or less impact on system throughput than another customer’s items. This doesn’t necessarily mean one customer is being rewarded over another. It means that customers are paying for the value they get rather than the effort we put in. Why should a customer pay more for a feature just because we have to do a bit more research than usual? Such extra investments don’t just benefit him but help the team in general, so this method spreads the costs. Why should a customer pay more for a feature just because an employee has gone on maternity leave and we had to hire another. Costs will go up, throughput will go down. This will change our cost per item, but no specific customer should be rewarded or penalised for this.”


Fabian: “I think, I understand: Either I know exactly what I want to have (and am willing to invest heavily in analysis), then you would just break down stories to relatively small ones. Otherwise, you would suggest to proceed incrementally via MVPs (where you break down stories for the next increment only).


The activities in both cases seem relatively similar to what I would do when I would estimate a project (or a part of a project):

* Specify what will be delivered with the next milestone

* Break it down (to a certain degree), to see what has to be done

* Assign every item some specific effort

You just leave out the last item, which is putting a number on it, ain’t you?


The amount of work for assigning efforts seems relatively low for me, if you already broke down the work. This brings me to my next question: What are the concrete advantages of not estimating? What problems are solved by not estimating?”


Kurt: “The first bit is roughly right, although I don’t think anyone should ever need to invest heavily in analysis. If you know what you want in advance then the analysis has been done. If you don’t then we can start to think in a lean startup way, and conduct experiments to test our market assumptions and generate new knowledge. I guess initial story splitting is a kind of analysis, but it is more like a simple mechanical process, looking for keywords etc.


And of course as usual, both extremes are rare, more typical is something in the middle, where the customer knows something about what he wants, but not all the details.


I like your list of three points. I would leave out the third point, but I would replace it with something like “assign a risk category”, or “assign a class of service” or “calculate the cost of delay”. Actually these things don’t need to be, and shouldn’t be, done all at once in the beginning. That is waterfall, or hybrid not agile. I think it is better to do such things as late as possible, just before the actual development.


You are right that the problem with estimates is not just that it takes time. It is unprofessional. It is like fortune-telling. It is simply guessing, and in several decades of software development we have learned that it doesn’t work. The numbers that is produces cannot be reliably used for anything, except perhaps sprint and release planning. Now we are starting to understand why it doesn’t work. You cannot reliably predict the effort involved in completing work in the complex or chaotic domain. Even if you could predict it, this number will not have any meaningful relationship to anything important. Now the agile community has talked a bit about estimating, and done a reasonable job with it so that it is useful in certain circumstances, done in a certain way. Using relative units like story points has helped scrum teams perform sprint and release planning, particularly when the variability of PBIs is not well understood. It is important that everyone understands the limitation of this approach. That these estimates are not to be understood by a customer to be a promise, they are not applicable when considering the wider value stream, they should not be used to base prices on etc.


No one in the agile community ever said that effort estimates are the correct approach to use for calculating costs in an offer or invoice. No one ever said that effort estimates be used to determine project delivery dates. Doing this has resulted in losing huge amounts of trust and money (either the customer’s or supplier’s).


So there are several problems solved by not estimating: Project failure in general, mistrust and disappointed customers, teams that feel disappointed when the actual lead time and delivery rate doesn’t match their guesses, and huge loss of money.


Imagine these slight exaggerated scenarios. Imagine a Scrum team developing software according to a backlog, and they need to know what they might achieve in a week. In this case the units of work (PBIs) are relatively large and few in number compared to the container (the sprint). It is like packing large stones in a small jar. If the stones have a variety of sizes then guessing at their rough relative sizes can help determine if we can pack in 5, 10, 15 or 20 stones in the jar. This is all the agile community has ever used estimation for, and in this specific context, it solves a specific problem.


If we consider the whole value stream, not just the development, and look at the departmental or business unit level, or even if we consider whole projects rather than individual sprints, then we aren’t packing large stones into small jars. The size of the units of work is relatively smaller compared to the container. It is more like filling larger jars with grains of sand. Not only filling the jars, but collecting them from the beach, cleaning the jars, filling them, packing them into a box and taking them to a post office. In this scenario would you bother trying to estimate the size of each grain of sand? No. You would use concrete measurements of how many boxes could be delivered to the post office over the last lear, and use that information to base future business decisions on.”


Fabian: “Thanks Kurt! I think we covered many topics. And cleared up several misunderstandings about #NoEstimates. I really appreciated this dialog as I learned a lot!”


Conference Catchup

Filed under: conferences — Tags: , , , , , — Kurt Häusler @ 11:06 am

So normally I try and write up a bit about the conferences I attend, but I have been a bit slack lately. Since my last post about the play4agile event and the agile coach camp, I have attended 4 interesting events that I would like to share about. I am going to keep it short, partially deliberately, and also because the first two events took place a while ago, and the other two I forgot to take notes for.

In June the exclusive, invitation-only, Kanban Leadership Retreat in Mayrhofen, Austria took place.  This was my first one, and it was amazing to catch up with the world’s leaders in developing and applying the Kanban Method. One of the first sessions was also one of the best. Sigi Kaltenecker and Klaus Leopold talked about their still-in-development ideas about looking not just at Kanban practices but at change and leadership practices in the organisation. For me it was essential to see a list of concrete practices under this topic because concepts like Change or Leadership can tend to be a bit abstract. 

It was also interesting to hear from Dimitar Bakardzhiev about what has been happening in the Theory of Constraints community. He mentioned that they seem to be a lot less scared to talk about money than e.g. the Kanban (and Agile) community. I definitely think we should talk about the financial aspects of knowledge work and product development a lot more.

I saw a case study presentation from Nina Schwab at Tupalo in Austria. They had an innovative approach with a horizontal lane at the bottom for cards to leave the system and travel right to left and reenter the system, which to me could be used to implement the feedback loop required in The Kanban Method. Things learnt could be placed in this lane and flow back into the input queue.

I missed Troy’s session, which might have been a mistake as I heard it was really good.

Some miscellaneous points I noted down include things like:

  • Change should not be a separate initiative, it should be part of the actual day to day work.
  • We can start with the practices, and then move on to more abstract things like values and goals.
  • If were to pay enough direct attention to change and leadership practices Kanban itself may become almost of secondary importance.
  • Kanban is for building learning organisations.
  • The principles and practices are “kickoff” focussed, and less relevant for running systems.
  • I still need to look more into the Toyota and/or Improvement Katas.

I would like to thank my former employer ETECTURE GmbH for funding my participation at the Kanban Leadership Retreat.

 

In August I attended and even spoke at the Agile Lean Europe Unconference in Bucharest. I actually combined it with a family holiday, as the ALE unconferences have an awesome family and spouse program. I attended the one in Berlin in 2011, but missed the one in Barcelona in 2012. It was great to catch up with the agile lean community again.

ALE

I won’t go into too much detail about the sessions I attended as everything is available online. Videos and slides. The highlights for me were the keynotes from Jurgen Appelo  and Joe Justice from Wikispeed, and Vasco Duarte’s #NoEstimates session.

I chose not to take part in the evening social activities as I was enjoying exploring Bucharest with my family. 

I think my talk about Offers and Pricing went well, and inspired quite a bit of subsequent discussion. You can see the slides here:

Offers & Pricing from Kurt Häusler

 

My family and I actually stayed in Romania an extra week where we went to the beach on the Black Sea for a relaxing holiday.

Although I funded my own participation, I think it is important to thank the sponsors for their support.

 

The third conference I need to mention is the Lean Kanban Central Europe that took place in Hamburg in 2013.

Lkce

This was a really well organised (by it-agile) event. Location, food, wi-fi, extra activities were all first rate. It was interesting to see so many people outside the core Kanban community in Germany interested in attending. In previous years I had been to the Benelux / Netherlands versions of the lean kanban conference and they were quite a bit smaller. It was actually kind of weird, but also kind of nice, to see so many people I did not know attending a lean Kanban conference. Could the Kanban Method be crossing the chasm? I hope so, because I really believe in the approach, and hope to work intensively with it in the future.

The top 3 highlights for me were:

The last conference I attended in 2013 was the Agile Cologne 2013 Open Space.

Agile Cologne Original Logo v1 1

I first attended 2 Kanban oriented sessions. The first one was quite interesting, the main theme ended up being clearing up misconceptions about what Kanban is itself. It seems most people thought it was a Scrum-like process for maintenance etc. The idea of it being evolutionary improvement tool was foreign for many people. I think this might have been the session where I decided to stop “correcting” people who have this other view about what Kanban is. It is starting to feel a bit like the emperor’s new clothes when the thought leaders are insisting on one view of what Kanban is, yet the actual community of people out there using it are discovering that to them, jt is something quite different? Which group is correct depends on whether we define words according to a descriptive or prescriptive approach. I have now managed to develop a wider model of what Kanban is in my head, and am more accepting of people using it as a flow-based development or maintenance process rather than an evolutionary change tool. I find it increasingly important to distinguish both approaches, i.e. “Kanban” which could mean a lot of things, and “The Kanban Method”, which really does refer to the evolutionary change approach. I still feel like a bit of a dick when people ask me what Kanban is, and I have to weasily answer it like “Well to me it refers to The Kanban Method, which is ….. however most people use the term to refer to their development or maintenance process which features some or more of …..”. Anyway. The second session was comparing Lean, Agile, Scrum and Kanban, We tried to identify where the overlaps were, and which ideas borrow from with other ones etc. It was a much better discussion the the typical Kanban vs Scrum comparison. The small group actually understood the differences better than usual.

The third session was one I attempted to moderate, based on the topic of #NoEstimates. I thought I did a fairly poor job. I found it especially challenging to introduce the topic, do most of the talking, facilitate the discussion, and write things up on the flip chart. In the future I will concentrate on doing just one of these activities. The fourth topic was supposed to be about different ways of pricing software development I think, and I thought I might be able to contribute quite a bit, but the group seemed to be stuck on the aspects of German contract law relevant for services providers engaged in hybrid projects, or projects that are presented to the customer as waterfall projects, but are developed internally with Scrum. This is fair, because this is what most German service providers are concerned with, but I found it boring. If you aren’t prepared to think outside the box, if you aren’t prepared to move beyond hybrid projects, or move beyond fixed price (which can work) or T&M (which is poisonous for knowledge work) projects, or move beyond the old German “Service Contract”s or “Work Contract”s, then of course your options are limited. I know the classic argument is something like “but our customers are only prepared to work in this way”, then I don’t know why you are looking for alternatives. Alternatives exist, but you have already declared your customers won’t accept them so in your case it is easy, you have to work according to how the customer demands! But for those of us lucky enough to have customers that have also had problems with classical approaches in the past and are also looking for working in a better way,  then there are plenty of really effective ways to control and manage risks, and avoid disappointment, misunderstanding and hidden costs. My secret is basically to stop looking for “Agile contracts”, that path only cycles back to where you are now. Look instead for end-to-end agility, radically different pricing models, and THEN write up a suitable contract, or maybe you will discover that contracts are not even always required, or at least they might start to have a different purpose other than declaring what to do when things go wrong. Sounds radical doesn’t it, but the agile community actually used to be radical. 

Anyway, I doubt I will be attending as many conferences in the future as I have in the past, the ROI is starting to seem noticeably less than it used to be. I will be attending the Frankfurter Entwicklertag next week, where Bob Martin will be delivering the keynote. I was lucky enough to win a free ticket to that thanks to Andrena who held a draw at the christmas meet up of the Agile Rhein-Main user group. So big thanks to Andrena for the ticket! I will try and be disciplined enough to write a blog post about the event soon after it.

Apart from that, I don’t plan to attend any conferences this year except when I can speak about something I have actually done that will be interesting for the community. I don’t want to talk about untested theory anymore, and I don’t think the community wants to hear about it either. Hopefully I will be lucky enough to work with some genuinely interesting ideas as part of my job and can report my findings at a conference.

January 6, 2014

2013 in review

Filed under: Uncategorized — Kurt Häusler @ 9:23 am

The WordPress.com stats helper monkeys prepared a 2013 annual report for this blog.

Here’s an excerpt:

A San Francisco cable car holds 60 people. This blog was viewed about 3,600 times in 2013. If it were a cable car, it would take about 60 trips to carry that many people.

Click here to see the complete report.

November 19, 2013

Book Review: The Principles of Product Development Flow

Filed under: Book Review — Tags: , , — Kurt Häusler @ 11:26 am

This will probably be a short review, as it has been some months since I have read the book. This book is really dense with information. Many people find it very difficult and suggest reading his previous book first. In fact at the Kanban Leadership Retreat we had a session called “Dumbing Down Don”. I had read his previous bookreviewed it here and heard the author Don Reinertsen speak probably 3 or 4 times at conferences before I read the book. Also his ideas were already well known to anyone in the “Kanban community”, so I felt well prepared and didn’t find the material particularly challenging. Actually challenging is the wrong word. I didn’t find the book particularly difficult to understand. It does however challenge much mainstream thinking in the area of the economics of product development management, so in that sense it is indeed challenging.

Flow

This is probably the best book I have read so far this year. It was an easy 5 stars on Amazon and Goodreads. I continually recommend it as the most important book for anyone using Kanban to read. Assuming one gets training or manages to understand the basics through experience or other sources, I might even consider it more important for Kanban practitioners than David’s book. The third Kanban core practice, Manage Flow, is one of the hardest to grasp, and this book is essentially the guide to this practice.

The biggest takeaway for me was the material on understanding the true costs of product development. Too many places I have worked at think cost is a simple matter of counting the hours a developer spends pushing buttons on a keyboard. This book helps highlight the importance of paying attention to other types of costs, particularly the costs associated with queues and the cost of delay. I also really like the way he brings things back to real numbers, as in financial numbers. That is something many in the agile community for example seem to avoid or at least overlook. In a lot of ways Don Reinertsen reminds me a lot of Tom Gilb. Another concept in the book that has occupied my thoughts lately is the asymmetry of payoff functions. This is the idea that we cannot expect every product to meet our desired expectations, and in fact often only a minority of products can be or should be fully leveraged in order to fund the less successful ones. Basically we should recognise and accept that most of our products will not be hits and kill them as soon as we have invested enough to realise that they will not be hits. The minority of hits should be successful enough to fund the investment in the non-hits. This is standard practice in the pharmaceutical industry for example. The question that haunts me, is how can software development service providers leverage what we know about the asymmetry of payoff functions. Service providers earn the same regardless of the level of success of the product. Could this be changed? Should we price software development services according to the level of success the product reaches in the market? It is a dysfunction splitting the organisation developing the product from the organisation that realises the value of it? One thing I am convinced of is that most software development service providers spend way too much time, effort and money on products that will not meet their market expectations. It still seems unintuitive for a software development service provider to kill a “project” that is not meeting its financial expectations, and this needs to change. Too much development capacity is wasted on such low-value work.

This book is definitely a must-read not just for Kanban practitioners, but anyone involved in developing products, especially at a management level.

Oh that reminds me, another thing that I really liked is that he uses the phrase “Product Developer” in places where we might expect to read “Manager”. He does this all through the book when discussing decisions that need to be made. Now in the real world the old “Taylorist” split between manager-thinkers, and worker-doers still exists. Even in software development. The idea that a e.g. Software Developer will be involved in an investment decision based on concrete financial information is still very foreign, but one that I see as a desirable and necessary future, and the language in this book assumes and hopefully reinforces this ideal future, which really appealed to me.

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